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国需求下降压低全球煤价 ；俄罗斯出口禁令恐加深粮食危机

来源：互联网 时间：2010-08-18 点击：

中国需求下降压低全球煤价

Chinese lull pushes price of coal downward

Coal prices have declined by nearly 10 per cent from the year's high as surging hydroelectricity supplies in China curb the country's appetite for overseas coal.

煤价已经较年内高点下跌近10%。中国水力发电供应飙升抑制了煤炭进口需求。

China has become a key factor in global coal prices as the country swings from exporter to importer amid surging demand for power and on the back of a clampdown on illegal and unsafe mining in Shanxi province, the key producing area.

随着近年中国电力需求飙升，以及主要煤炭生产地区山西省取缔不安全的非法采矿，中国已从煤炭出口国转变为进口国，进而成为影响全球煤价的一个关键因素。

In the first half of the year, China imported nearly 50m tonnes of thermal coal to fire power stations, up almost 130 per cent from 21.8m tonnes in the same period of last year, offsetting lacklustre demand in Japan and Europe and boosting global coal prices.

今年上半年，中国进口了近5000万吨电煤用作燃煤电厂的燃料，较去年同期的2180万吨增长了近130%，抵消了日本和欧洲的疲弱需求，推高了全球煤价。

Mining executives believe that the Chinese buying spree is weakening due to surging hydroelectric power supply and higher domestic coal output.

矿业高管认为，中国购买潮消退，是因为其国内水力发电供应飙升和煤炭产量增长。

Chinese thermal power plants' coal stockpiles have risen as they burn less, further putting pressure on prices, and executives said the country would buy a total of 85m-90m tonnes of thermal coal overseas in 2010 against earlier expectations of more than 100m-105m tonnes.

随着生产下降，中国燃煤电厂的煤炭库存已经增加，进一步令煤价承压。高管们表示，中国今年的电煤进口总量将达到8500万-9000万吨，低于早前预期的1亿-1.05亿吨。

Beijing is putting considerable pressure on local governments to reduce energy demand by shutting down obsolete industries.

中国政府正向地方政府施加巨大压力，要求它们关闭落后产业，以降低能源需求。

Daniel Brebner, commodities analyst at Deutsche Bank in London, estimated that China power consumption growth would slow to about 6 per cent in October-December, down from 20 per cent earlier this year.

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)驻伦敦大宗商品分析师丹尼尔•布莱伯纳(Daniel Brebner)估计，今年10月至12月，中国电力消费增速将放缓至6%左右，低于今年早些时候的20%。

The lull has weighed on prices as demand from traditional buyers such as Germany, the UK, Spain, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan remains constrained.

由于德国、英国、西班牙、台湾、韩国和日本等传统买家的需求仍然有限，中国需求下降令煤价承压。

︿(￣︶￣)︽(￣︶￣)︿

俄罗斯出口禁令恐加深粮食危机

RUSSIA’S GRAIN BAN IS THE WRONG RESPONSE

Two years ago, rocketing prices for agricultural commodities sparked food riots in the streets of some developing countries. Prices have been rising sharply again this year, especially for grains such as wheat. Last week, they shot up after Russia imposed an export ban on grains until the end of this year. Another food crisis does not look out of the question.

两年前，农产品价格飙升在一些发展中国家引发了街头抢粮骚乱。今年，农产品价格再度急剧上涨，尤其是小麦等谷物。上周，在俄罗斯宣布在年底前暂停谷物出口后，农产品价格直线上升。另一场粮食危机看来并非不可能。

Not for nothing did Lenin once call grain the “currency of currencies”. Its price not only determines the cost of staples such as bread; it is also used as animal feed.

列宁曾经将谷物称作“货币的货币”，这种说法不无道理。谷物价格决定着面包等主食的成本；而且谷物也被用作动物饲料。

Russia’s ban – announced theatrically by its prime minister, Vladimir Putin – was blamed on droughts and fires that have ravaged some of its wheat-growing districts. These have depleted the summer harvest and may cause the winter crop to fail too. But while it is possible to sympathise with the Russian predicament, the ban is counterproductive. It is both a costly mechanism for protecting the welfare of less well-off Russians and makes a rerun of 2008 more likely.

由俄罗斯总理弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)宣布的禁令，将责任归咎于俄罗斯部分小麦产区肆虐的干旱和火灾。灾情已使夏收大量减产，或许还会导致冬季歉收。虽然俄罗斯的困境可能令人同情，但禁令会起到适得其反的效果。对于保护不太富裕的俄罗斯人的福祉，这是一种代价昂贵的机制，同时，它还增加了2008年情形再现的可能性。

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